Source · Select Committees · Public Accounts Committee
Recommendation 23
23
Accepted
Significant uncertainty remains regarding consumer behaviour change for power sector decarbonisation.
Conclusion
We also asked the Department about how government can influence consumer behaviour. The Department told us that its modelling of power sector decarbonisation by 2035 covers different pathways characterising different assumptions of consumer behaviour and energy efficiency (such as home storage), but acknowledged that it does not know which of those pathways we are on.71 We reported in March 2022 that significant uncertainty remains as to whether consumers will rapidly change their behaviours in line with the expectations of government’s Net Zero Strategy, and that government has a poor track record of engaging consumers, including over-estimating buy-in to its policies.72 69 Qq 33–34 70 HC Committee of Public Accounts, Green Homes Grant Voucher Scheme, Twenty-Seventh Report of Session 2021–22, HC 635, December 2021 71 Q 37 72 HC Committee of Public Accounts, Achieving Net Zero: Follow up, Forty-First Report of Session 2021–22, HC 642, March 2022 16 Decarbonising the power sector
Government Response Summary
The government states the recommendation has been implemented, explaining its existing Net Zero Higher and Lower modelling scenarios that estimate future power demands and consider consumer choices and energy efficiency. Government policies are designed to incorporate these factors and incentivise behavioural change.
Government Response
Accepted
HM Government
Accepted
6.1 The government agrees with the Committee’s recommendation. Recommendation implemented 6.2 The department has modelled two potential scenarios to help estimate future power sector demands: the Net Zero Higher1 scenario, which explores the impact of using widespread electrification to support transport, heating, and industry decarbonisation; and the Net Zero Lower scenario, which explores the impact of using low-carbon hydrogen more extensively. Both scenarios take account of the underlying socioeconomic drivers of energy demand (such as GDP and population growth) and are consistent with the department’s Carbon Budgets and for achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Full details of the modelling and assumptions are in the technical annex to the Net Zero Strategy. 6.3 Through its range of sectoral models, the department then ensures it takes account of the policies and proposals required to achieve its net zero goals. While the policy mix in each scenario will depend on the net zero pathway taken, consumer choices and energy efficiency measures will play a significant role in achieving carbon savings. For instance, the high electrification scenario assumes high adoption of electric heat pumps and electric vehicles, while energy efficiency measures (such as insulation and more efficient appliances) reduce energy demand. The government’s policies aim to take into account consumer preferences and to follow natural replacement cycles, whilst supporting the infrastructure needed to make such transitions, and incentivising behavioural change. Full details are set out in the government's Carbon Budget Delivery Plan.