Covid-19: Cost tracker update (+ Spending Review)
Closed
What the inquiry looked at
“The Committee will question senior Treasury officials on the latest figures for the total cost of the UK national response to the Covid-19 pandemic so far , and how this impacts and interacts with the much-anticipated cross-Government Spending Review, with the Autumn Budget to be delivered on October 27 . If you have evidence on the accumulating costs of spending on the pandemic response - £370 billion in departmental spending and the value of loans guaranteed by Government or the Bank of England now running at £129 billion - or on the balance of spending decisions outlined in the Review and Budget 2021, please submit it here by Wednesday 10 November.”
The committee's words, from the inquiry page on parliament.uk ↗.
What it found
Government’s response to the pandemic has exposed the taxpayer to substantial financial risks from fraud and error. Government estimates that losses due to fraud and error from the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme alone will be £5.3 billion. The estimated loss due to fraud and error across all COVID-19 response measures is not known but is expected to be at least £15 billion across measures implemented by HM Revenue & Customs, the Department for Work & Pensions and the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy. The total cost across government remains uncertain and could be higher, because of the long loan repayment terms. For example, loans to businesses under the Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS) last up to 10 years and the typical loan period under the Cultural Recovery Fund is 20 years.
The National Audit Office COVID-19 cost tracker has increased transparency regarding the cost of the government’s response to the pandemic. The September 2021 update reports that government has spent £261 billion on 374 measures in response to the pandemic. The measures are expected to cost a total of £370 billion over their lifetime.
As we have repeatedly highlighted, as the UK recovers from the pandemic it is more vital than ever that government maintains accountability for public money and transparency over what is being spent. HM Treasury plans to review and update the costs associated with the COVID-19 loan schemes and some public service measures where these can be reliably attributed to COVID-19 but has not committed to continuing to update all the data currently captured in the cost tracker. We are concerned by the extent of costs that may be excluded by this method and that HM Treasury does not currently plan to distinguish the cost of COVID-19 from departments’ business-as-usual spending in future. Both of these hinder the opportunity for Parliament and the public to scrutinise the ongoing cost of the pandemic. In addition, while loans such as those provided under the Cultural Recovery Fund, and any liabilities associated with loans, such as the estimated cost of writing off some of the BBLS loans, will be recorded in the accounts of the relevant Departments there is a benefit to seeing the ongoing estimated cost of COVID-19 to the taxpayer in one place. Not only is it vital to be transparent with the taxpayer, it will also be helpful to government in planning for future risks which may require similar interventions.
HM Treasury needs to ensure that departments identify the lessons from the COVID-19 response and that these are put into practice. The cost tracker has shown how information on the actions taken across the whole of government and their estimated costs can be identified and presented in one place, enabling the full picture to be understood. This will be vital in helping government prepare for future fast-paced crises and large cross-government programmes and enabling government to make well-informed and rapid financial decisions.
What the government said
The government responded on 28 April 2022. The deadline was 23 April 2022.
The government states that it "agrees with the Committee's recommendation" on each of the four recommendations in the response, with two marked as already implemented and two carrying a target implementation date of Spring 2023.
- On applying the cost tracker approach to other spending, the government says there "could be good cause" to re-deploy it in cases of a distinct cause, reliable tracking at proportionate cost, rapidly evolving spend and clear public interest.
- HM Treasury "plans to apply" the cost tracker benefits, "in due course", to the public spending implications of the UK's response to the invasion of Ukraine.
- HM Treasury has "committed to continue to conduct a routine review" of COVID-19 costs where changes "can be reliably attributed" to the pandemic. Updates will be annual for the next two years, after which it "will review what is still required".
- On fraud and error, and on lessons learned, the government says the recommendations are implemented, citing a letter to the Committee of 31 March 2021. It says updated fraud and error estimates will be published in 2021-22 annual reports and accounts "in the next few months".
Read the government's response ↗ Read the report ↗ Report an error
How the inquiry ran
Each dot is a dated item listed on this page, from the inquiry's opening on 20 October 2021 to 28 April 2022. The dashed mark is the deadline Parliament records for the government's response.
- Report 23 Feb 2022
- Government response 28 Apr 2022
- Correspondence 21 Apr 2022