Source · Select Committees · Treasury Committee
Recommendation 7
7
The OBR forecast states that the policy mix chosen by the Chancellor at this Budget...
Conclusion
The OBR forecast states that the policy mix chosen by the Chancellor at this Budget will act as a boost to inflation, and it identified in particular the increase 44 Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 in employer National Insurance Contributions, and the large fiscal loosening that took place in the Spending Review. The Prime Minister has advocated high wage growth. As the OBR has shown, there may be some fiscal benefits from inflation if the source of inflation is higher domestic wages rather than from imported and domestic inflation in the price of goods. However, setting out an economic policy of promoting high wage growth that is not accompanied by increases in productivity will be inflationary, and risks contributing to a wage price spiral. The Chancellor showed in his speech that he is alert to the fiscal risks of higher inflation and higher interest rates becoming entrenched. The Treasury should keep these risks at the forefront of their thinking when designing policies at future fiscal events. (Paragraph 39) Spending Review and the overall tax burden
Government Response
Acknowledged
HM Government
Acknowledged
I thank the Committee for their conclusions on the government’s fiscal strategy. The Treasury continues to monitor the risks of higher inflation and interest rates closely, and the Charter for Budget Responsibility now contains a new focus on assessing the affordability of public debt. As the Committee notes, the UK’s high level of debt means we are vulnerable to changes in macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates and inflation, which would increase the amount we spend on debt interest rather than public services. That is why the government has introduced new fiscal rules to help ensure the public finances return to a sustainable footing. Rolling fiscal rules means we can absorb some shocks and adjust fiscal policy as needed, but the government has already made tough decisions which demonstrate our commitment to keep debt under control, such as delivering a long-term, sustainable funding solution for the NHS and reform of the adult social care system.