Recommendation 4

HM Government Acknowledged

The Government accepts this recommendation. Research has shown that larger cities have higher productivity per head than smaller cities, and that cities become more productive the more they grow—the so-called “agglomeration effect.” Better connectivity can drive agglomeration effects, as access to bigger markets and a wider pool of labour and suppliers enables businesses to grow more rapidly, boosting productivity in regional economies. The effect is less pronounced in the United Kingdom (outside London) than in many other rich countries because of the challenges our city and regional transport systems face. The Department will publish a number of case studies on major transport investments in 2022, including an assessment of how these have driven growth and productivity. This will include insight into Manchester’s Metrolink network. Manchester’s Metrolink is the largest light rail network in the UK. The first phase began construction in 1989, concluding in 1992. The network has grown significantly since, supported by significant local funding, with phase three opening in 2014, the Second City Crossing opening in 2017, and the Trafford Park Line in 2020. The network now sees services running on eight lines to 99 stops and covering nearly 60 miles. In 2019, an international study of light rail systems identified Metrolink as one of the best in the world. The aim of the scheme was to improve the quantity and quality of public transport across Greater Manchester—in particular, addressing the poor public transport connectivity between the city centre and suburban areas and acting as a catalyst to regeneration. The aforementioned agglomeration effects can also encourage businesses to base themselves in and around Manchester. Metrolink has been found to be attractive to those who have cars available, with almost half of Phase 3 line users saying that they could have made their journey by car or van. Transport for Greater Manchester estimate that for 2019/20, some 3.2 million car trips have been taken off the region’s road network by Phase 3 alone, equating to the removal of 6,700 tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Half of the population in Metrolink corridors have experienced an increase in public transport accessibility to employment and healthcare of 10% or more. This effect is particularly pronounced in deprived communities, where the improvement is greater than that seen for the corridor as a whole. Similarly, businesses on Metrolink corridors have also seen improved customer and labour force catchments, although there is also the perception that the new lines have opened their businesses to greater competition. Statistical modelling has demonstrated a positive relationship between improved public transport accessibility and economic growth, although further work is required to separate out the true cause and effect. However, house prices can act as a good indicator. A study by the University of Leeds found that past changes in accessibility due to a Metrolink extension led to a positive uplift of 6.3% from being within 1km of a Metrolink stop. The Government recognises the importance of understanding and building the evidence base on the impacts of transport on economic growth. To support place-based analysis and help address regional inequalities, we have published case studies which demonstrate how scheme promoters can capture the local context in appraisal and we are reviewing our guidance in light of new Green Book annexes on place-based analysis and transformational impacts. We will also be publishing a revised version of the Rebalancing Toolkit in due course. This will provide further information on the strategic impacts of transport projects and their interaction with the levelling up policy agenda through a clear theory of change.